Trend of mortality reduction in transit post IPI accidents

Abstract

Objective: to analyze the mortality trend because of traffic accidents (ATT), fleet of cars and motorcycles in Brazilian capital cities and evaluate if the reduction of Tax over Industrialized Products (IPI) had impact on that trend.
Methods: an ecological interrupted time series analytic study of traffic accident mortality trend, using as data sources: SIM from DATASUS and RENAVAM from DENATRAN. T Deaths which underlying cause was traffic accident were selected. Initially, the 2004-2007 period trend was analyzed by linear regression and Cox Stuart. Then, a monthly prevision has been calculated for the 2008-2012 period and the real rates were calculated for the same period. Finally, there was a calculation of the cumulative difference between the two rates. The same was realized for the calculation of the fleet of cars and motorcycles.
Results: There was a significant increase of rates of mortality in nine (33.3%), decrease in three (11.1%) and no significant variation in 15 (55.6%) of the 27 Brazilian capitals in relation to the prediction model. As for the cars, 14 (51.9 %), two (7.4%) and 11 (40.7 %) capitals, respectively, increase, reduced and presented no variation between the observed and predicted accumulated rates. In addition, for the motorcycles, 18 (66.7 %) capitals showed increased rates, while four (14.8 %) decrease and five (18.5 %) with no significant variation.
Conclusion: the reduction of the IPI rate showed a significant increase in mortality rates in several Brazilian capitals. Future governmental actions require, therefore, previous studies of actual impacts on public health.